A1281
Title: Multiscale network modeling of migration flows in Austria
Authors: Martina Contisciani - Central European University, CEU GmbH (Austria) [presenting]
Abstract: Migration is central to various societal problems related to socioeconomic development. While much of the existing research has focused on international migration, migration patterns within a single country remain relatively unexplored. Internal migration patterns in Austria over a 20-year period are examined using high-resolution administrative data and a Bayesian inferential network approach. Specifically, a class of weighted stochastic block models is employed to characterize the flows between municipalities and extract their clustering according to similar target and destination rates. This methodology, which in the context of migration studies remains largely underexplored, reveals significant deviations from commonly assumed relocation patterns modeled by the gravity law. At the same time, unexpected biases of internal migrations are observed that lead to less frequent movements across boundaries at both district and state levels than predictions suggest. This leads to significant regionalization of migration at multiple geographical scales and augmented division between urban and rural areas. These patterns appear to be remarkably persistent across decades of migration data, demonstrating systematic limitations of conventionally used gravity models in migration studies. The approach presents a robust methodology that can be used to improve such evaluations and reveal new phenomena in migration networks.
