A0304
Title: Modelling and forecasting minimum and maximum temperatures in the Iberian Peninsula
Authors: Esther Ruiz - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain) [presenting]
Vladimir Rodriguez-Caballero - Instituto Tecnologico Autonomo De Mexico (Mexico)
Gloria Gonzalez-Rivera - University of California Riverside (United States)
Abstract: A novel methodology is proposed to model and forecast intervals of minimum and maximum temperature based on fitting state space models to center and log-range temperature. In doing so, we allow the center and log-range temperature to be related and to obtain measures of the uncertainty associated with estimates of the temperature trend and dispersion. The methodology is first implemented separately to intervals of minimum and maximum temperature observed monthly in four locations in the Iberian peninsula chosen to represent different climate conditions. Namely, we consider temperatures in Barcelona, Coruna, Madrid and Seville. Second, given that, at each location, center and log-range temperatures are shown to be unrelated, we fit a multivariate dynamic factor model to extract potential commonalities among center (log-range) temperatures observed at a large number of locations in the Iberian peninsula.
