B1258
Title: Modeling for coronavirus pandemic: A comparative research
Authors: Valeriya Simeonova - Sofia University (Bulgaria)
Maroussia Slavtchova-Bojkova - Sofia University (Bulgaria) [presenting]
Abstract: Comparative analysis for the ongoing pandemics caused by Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will be presented based on the model of the general branching processes vs artificial neural networks models. We have developed and maintained three possible scenarios: main, optimistic and pessimistic. They are depending on the time-varying reproduction number of the epidemic. It is considered as a measure of the effectiveness of the public health interventions changing to a greater or lesser degree throughout the pandemic waves observed. The focus is given to the possibility of using different models on such data with attention to their reliability, time consuming, accuracy and aggregation/differentiation by scenarios in prognosis.
