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A1073
Title: Climate change heterogeneity: A new quantitative approach Authors:  Jesus Gonzalo - Universidad Carlos III de Madrid (Spain) [presenting]
Lola Gadea - University of Zaragoza (Spain)
Abstract: Climate change is a non-uniform phenomenon. A new quantitative methodology is proposed to characterize, measure, and test the existence of climate change heterogeneity. First, we introduce a new testable warming typology based on the evolution of the trend of the whole temperature distribution and not only on the average. Second, we define the concepts of warming acceleration and warming amplification in a testable format. And third, we introduce the new testable concept of warming dominance to determine whether region A is suffering a worse warming process than that region. Applying this three-step methodology, we find that Spain and the Globe experience clear distributional warming processes (beyond the standard average)but of different types. In both cases, this process is accelerating over time and asymmetrically amplified. Overall, warming in Spain dominates the Globe in all the quantiles except the lower tail of the global temperature distribution that corresponds to the Arctic region. Our climate change heterogeneity results open the door to the need for a non-uniform causal-effect climate analysis that is beyond the standard causality in mean as well as for a more efficient design of the mitigation-adaptation policies. In particular, the heterogeneity we find suggests that these policies should contain a common global component and a clear local-regional element. Future climate agreements should take the whole temperature distribution into account.