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View Submission - CFE
A0831
Title: Individual trend inflation Authors:  Toshitaka Sekine - Hitotsubashi University (Japan) [presenting]
Frank Packer - Bank for International Settlements (United States)
Shunichi Yoneyama - Bank of Japan (Japan)
Abstract: Recent approaches are extended to estimate trend inflation from survey responses of inflation forecasters. In addition to the average inflation forecasts, it tries to estimate the trend inflation of individual forecasters using a noisy information model. While the median of individual trend inflation does not materially differ from that obtained from the aggregate data, it demonstrates much richer analyses are feasible by looking at the distributions of individual trend inflation. The method is applied to the recent Japanese experiences to see the impacts of the introduction of the 2 percent inflation target and the aggressive monetary easing.