B0470
Title: Behavioural change in spatial epidemic models
Authors: Rob Deardon - University of Calgary (Canada) [presenting]
Abstract: One of the numerous difficulties in modelling epidemic spread is that caused by a behavioural change in the underlying population. This can be a major issue in public health since, as we have seen during the COVID-19 pandemic, behaviour in the population can change drastically as infection levels vary, both due to government mandates and personal decisions. Such changes in the underlying population result in major changes in transmission dynamics of the disease, making the modelling challenges. However, these issues arise in agriculture and public health, as changes in farming practice are also often observed as disease prevalence changes. We consider whether it is possible to model the behavioural change mechanism and the underlying transmission dynamics in the context of spatial epidemic models. Multiple mechanisms for allowing behavioural change will be considered, and issues such as identifiability for such models be considered. Models will be fitted within a Bayesian framework and explored using simulated data.
