B0409
Title: Statistical analysis of multi-day solar irradiance using a threshold time series model
Authors: Carolina Euan - Lancaster University (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: The analysis of solar irradiance has important applications in predicting solar energy production from solar power plants. Although the sun provides every day more energy than we need, the variability caused by environmental conditions affects electricity production. Recently, new statistical models have been proposed to provide stochastic simulations of high-resolution data to downscale and forecast solar irradiance measurements. Most of the existing models are linear and highly depend on normality assumptions. However, solar irradiance shows strong non-linearity and is only measured during the daytime. Thus, we propose a new multi-day threshold autoregressive (TAR) model to quantify the variability of the daily irradiance time series. We establish sufficient conditions for our model to be stationary, and we develop an inferential procedure to estimate the model parameters.
