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Title: Dividing the Iberian peninsula using wildfires data Authors:  Jose Ameijeiras-Alonso - KU Leuven (Belgium) [presenting]
Francesco Lagona - University Roma Tre (Italy)
Monia Ranalli - Roma Tre University (Italy)
Rosa Crujeiras - University of Santiago de Compostela (Spain)
Abstract: The aim is to present a model for providing a spatial segmentation of wildfire occurrences in the Iberian Peninsula according to a finite number of latent classes employing a hidden Markov random field. A model based on a mixture of Kato-Jones circular densities is suggested. This model takes into account special features of wildfire occurrence data such as multimodality, skewness and kurtosis. The parameters of the model vary across space according to a latent Potts model, modulated by geo-referenced covariates. Also, due to the numerical intractability of the likelihood method when estimating these parameters, a composite-likelihood method will be presented for solving this issue.