Title: An analysis of a hot hand effect in professional darts using state-space models
Authors: Marius Oetting - Bielefeld University (Germany) [presenting]
Roland Langrock - Bielefeld University (Germany)
Christian Deutscher - Bielefeld University (Germany)
Vianey Leos-Barajas - Bielefeld University (Germany)
Abstract: The hot hand hypothesis is investigated in professional darts in a near-ideal setting with minimal to no interaction between players. Considering almost one year of tournament data, corresponding to 167,492 dart throws in total, state-space models are used to investigate serial dependence in throwing performance. In these models, a latent state process serves as a proxy for a player's underlying ability, and autoregressive processes are used to model how this process evolves over time. The results show a strong but short-lived serial dependence in the latent state process, thus providing evidence for the existence of the hot hand.