Title: News vs. noise: What information is contained in the revisions of the JOLTS data
Authors: Amy Guisinger - Lafayette College (United States) [presenting]
Julie K Smith - Lafayette College (United States)
Abstract: The purpose is to examine the revisions to the major categories (openings, hires, quits and discharges) of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and to test if those revisions are mostly due to news (i.e. new information that was missing from the original release) or noise (i.e. structural changes in the economy). The JOLTS data are of particular interest as they provide information about labor demand, which is less researched than labor supply yet vitally important to understand equilibrium in the labor market. We find that the revisions in the JOLTS and CES data match recent results that find that most of the revisions to the initial data appear not to be either news or noise; however, there are two interesting exceptions in our analysis. In the job openings data (which is the measure of labor demand), changes arise from better collected data (i.e. news) not from measurement error (i.e. noise). In addition, in the payroll employment data, changes tend to arise from better collected data (i.e. news) and not measurement error (i.e. noise).