Title: A time varying parameter model to estimate the short-term effects of air pollution on human health
Authors: Clara Grazian - University of Oxford (United Kingdom)
Luigi Ippoliti - University G.d'Annunzio Chieti-Pescara (Italy)
Lara Fontanella - University of Chieti Pescara (Italy)
Pasquale Valentini - University G. d Annunzio of Chieti-Pescara (Italy) [presenting]
Abstract: A hierarchical spatio temporal regression model is introduced to study the spatial and temporal association existing between health data and air pollution. The model is developed for handling measurements belonging to the exponential family of distributions and allows the spatial and temporal components to be modelled conditionally independently via random variables for the (canonical) transformation of the measurements mean function. Pollution exposure are linked with the health outcomes through a regression model which allows for time variation in parameters (e.g. Markov switching, structural break models, threshold models, etc.).