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B0668
Title: Martingale testing of football betting odds Authors:  Mark Richard - Frankfurt School of Finance and Management (Germany) [presenting]
Jan Vecer - Charles University, MFF (Czech Republic)
Abstract: A novel approach for martingale testing is presented. The new approach is applied in the situation of football betting odds. The betting odds are the conditional expectation of the ultimate outcome and as such, they should follow a martingale evolution. We propose to use regression analysis to check for the martingale property and apply it on Betfair data from the English Premier League 2016/17 sampled with one-minute frequency during the in-play phase of the game.