Title: Uncertainty, perception and internet
Authors: Roberto Golinelli - University of Bologna (Italy) [presenting]
Maria Elena Bontempi - University of Bologna (Italy)
Matteo Squadrani - University of Bologna (Italy)
Abstract: Macroeconomic uncertainty comprises unobservable, heterogeneous and uncertain components. We do not know when economic agents perceive uncertainty and which component of uncertainty may arise or not their interest (and reactions). We created the EURQ index measuring the volumes of economic uncertainty related queries on the Web. The EURQ catches peoples interest/need to gather more information when they are worried and uncertain, and that some topics spontaneously drive more interest. Results can be exploited to improve forecasting and policy evaluation, and to create separate EURQ indexes (macro-real, financial, political) helpful in solving identification and endogeneity of the commonly used uncertainty indexes.