Title: International linkages and the changing nature of international business cycles
Authors: Wataru Miyamoto - University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong) [presenting]
Thuy Lan Nguyen - Santa Clara University (United States)
Abstract: The effects of changes in international input-output linkages on the nature of business cycles are quantified. We build a multi-sector multi-country international business cycle model that matches the input-output structure within and across countries. We find that, in our 23 countries sample with manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors, changes in the input-output linkages within and across borders between 1970 and 2007 causes a 21\% drop in output volatility in a median country and a small increase in cross-country output correlations. Our decomposition attributes about 11\% of the drop in output volatility to changes in international input-output linkages.