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A1699
Title: Nowcasting disaggregated trade and real activity: a DFM approach Authors:  Jan Bruha - CNB (Czech Republic) [presenting]
Abstract: An empirical model for nowcasting external trade and real activity is introduced. The model is based on model-based trend-cyclical decomposition of time series and the cyclical components are specified using a dynamic principal component model. We propose a stochastic EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. The proposed approach is illustrated on data of selected Central European countries.