Title: Aggregation of extreme rainfall
Authors: Anthony Davison - EPFL (Switzerland) [presenting]
Abstract: There is often a mismatch between observation of a process at individual sites and the need for inferences on aggregated output. Areal reduction factors, for example, transform estimates of extreme rainfall at a point to an estimate over a spatial domain, and are commonly used by hydrologists for flood risk estimation. The dependence structure of extreme rainfall plays a key role in this, since areal extremes may behave quite differently depending on whether the extreme rainfall is asymptotically dependent or independent. We shall discuss this problem and some of its ramifications, using simulated and real data.