Title: Joint extrapolation forecasting of supply and use tables based on matrix transformation techniques
Authors: Cheng Wang - Beihang University (China) [presenting]
Huiwen Wang - Beihang University (China)
Qi Fang - Beihang University (China)
Abstract: Plenty of methods have been proposed to update Supply and Use tables (SUTs). They rely on the assumption that the economic structure will not change significantly during the interpolation period. However, this assumption may not always hold, particularly for countries experiencing rapid development. Besides, they require the availability of the use and supply totals by products, which leads to that they cannot extrapolation forecasting SUTs. The aim is to combine forecasting with a matrix transformation technique (MTT) to provide a new perspective on joint forecasting SUTs. Under the assumption that changes in the trend of an economic structure are statistically significant, the method extrapolates SUTs by combining time series models with MTT and proceeds without economic data for the target years. A simulation study and an empirical analysis are conducted to compare the forecasting performance of the MTT to the Generalized RAS (GRAS)method. The results show that when we know the use and supply totals by products, it can be proved that the comprehensive performance of the MTT is as goog as the performance of the GRAS method, which shows the effectiveness of MTT. Thus MTT can demonstrate its merits to extrapolation forecasting SUTs when GRAS method cannot be used.