Title: Business confidence indicators across (similar) surveys
Authors: Tatiana Cesaroni - Bank of Italy (Italy) [presenting]
Libero Monteforte - Bank of Italy (Italy)
Abstract: Business survey indicators are widely used by policy makers to predict real economy evolution in the short run. The aim is to compare the predictive content of three business survey indicators collected in two different Italian business surveys, namely employment expectations, judgements concerning the general economic situation and credit conditions. More in detail we compare the cyclical properties of these business survey indicators and their ability to provide reliable forecasts with respect to the real economy using both spectral methods and forecasting models (i.e. VAR models).