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Title: Evaluating efficacy of a longitudinal biomarker for clinical endpoint: A joint modelling approach Authors:  Ruwanthi Kolamunnage-Dona - University of Liverpool (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: Joint modelling of longitudinal biomarker and event-time processes has gained its popularity in recent years as they yield more accurate and precise estimates. Considering this modelling framework, a new methodology for evaluating the time-dependent efficacy of a longitudinal biomarker for clinical endpoint is proposed. In particular, the proposed model assesses how well longitudinally repeated measurements of a biomarker over various time periods $(0,t)$ distinguishes between individuals who developed the disease by time $t$ and individuals who remain disease-free beyond time $t$. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve is used to provide the corresponding efficacy summaries at various t based on the association between longitudinal biomarker trajectory and risk of clinical endpoint prior to each time point. The proposed approach is evaluated through simulation and illustrated on the motivating dataset from a prospective observational study of biomarkers to diagnose the onset of sepsis.