Title: Variable selection in proportional hazards cure model with time-varying covariates, application to US bank failures
Authors: Alessandro Beretta - HEC Liege (Belgium) [presenting]
Cedric Heuchenne - University of Liege (Belgium)
Abstract: From a survival analysis perspective, bank failures data exhibit heavy censoring rates, but defaults are rare events. This empirical evidence can be explained by the existence of a subpopulation of banks likely immune from bankruptcy. In this regard, we use a mixture cure model to separate the factors with an influence on the susceptibility to default from the ones affecting the survival time of susceptible banks. We extend a semi-parametric proportional hazards cure model to time-varying covariates and we propose a variable selection technique based on its penalized likelihood. By means of a simulation study, we show how this technique performs reasonably well. Finally, we illustrate an application to commercial bank failures in the United States over the period 2006-2016.