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Title: First-in, first-out: Modelling the UK's CO2 emissions, 1860--2016 Authors:  David Hendry - University of Oxford (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: The United Kingdom was the first country into the Industrial Revolution in the mid-18th Century, building on earlier revolutions in scientific, technological and medical knowledge. 250 years later, real income levels in the UK are about 7-10 fold higher per capita, even greater in some other countries, many killer diseases have been tamed, and longevity has approximately doubled. However, such beneficial developments have led to an explosion in anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. The UK now seems to be one of the first countries out, as its CO2 emissions are back to 1890's levels. We develop an econometric model of that process over the last 150 years, and confirm the key role of reduced coal use, and also of the capital stock, which embodies the vintage of technology at its construction. Many major shifts and outliers require to be handled to develop a viable model.