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Title: Bayesian model-based space-time joint interpolation of temperature and rainfall fields Authors:  Giovanna Jona Lasinio - Sapienza University of Rome (Italy) [presenting]
Gianluca Mastrantonio - Politecnico of Turin (Italy)
Alessio Pollice - University of Bari (Italy)
Carlo Blasi - Sapienza University of Rome (Italy)
Giulia Capotorti - Sapienza University of Rome (Italy)
Giulio Genova - Sapienza University of Rome (Italy)
Lorenzo Teodonio - IPAL (Italy)
Abstract: A hierarchical space-time model is presented which describes the joint series of monthly extreme temperatures and amounts of rainfall. Data are available for 360 monitoring stations over 60 years with missing data affecting all series. Model components account for spatial dependence, seasonality, dependence on covariates (elevation) and between responses. The very large amount of data is tackled modelling spatial dependence by the nearest-neighbor Gaussian process. Response dependence is described introducing coregionalization. The proposed approach allows the imputation of missing data and an easy interpolation of climate surfaces at the national level. The motivation behind is the characterization of the so called ecoregions over the Italian territory. Ecoregions delineate broad and discrete ecologically homogeneous areas of similar potential as regards the climate, physiography, hydrography, vegetation and wildlife, and provide a geographic framework for interpreting ecological processes, disturbance regimes, and vegetation patterns and dynamics. In Italy two main macro-ecoregions have been defined and hierarchically arranged into 36 zones. Current climatic characterization of Italian ecoregions is based on data and bioclimatic indices from 1955-1985 and it requires appropriate update.