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Title: Real economic growth and oil price shocks: A Bayesian approach Authors:  Yong Song - University of Melbourne (Australia) [presenting]
John Maheu - McMaster University (Canada)
Qiao Yang - ShanghaiTech University (China)
Abstract: The predictability of U.S. economic growth by oil price is revisited. Existing works focus on point forecasts through the lens of linear models. We apply nonlinear models to investigate the impact of oil price on higher moments of the growth. In addition to point forecasts, we evaluate density forecasts as a measure of the overall predictive power.