Title: Inflation forecasts, inattentiveness and uncertainty
Authors: Roberto Golinelli - University of Bologna (Italy) [presenting]
Joshy Easaw - University of Cardiff (United Kingdom)
Saeed Heravi - University of Cardiff (United Kingdom)
Abstract: The purpose is to investigate the nature of professionals inflation forecasts inattentiveness. We outline and empirically investigate a generalized model of inattentiveness due to informational rigidity. We also introduce a novel theoretical model that considers the relationship between inattentiveness and uncertainty and, crucially, distinguishing between macroeconomic and data uncertainty. The empirical analysis uses the Survey of Professionals Forecast (SPF) data and clearly indicate that professional forecasters are depicted by inattentiveness due to imperfect information.