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Title: Evaluating the macroeconomic effects of the ECBs unconventional monetary policies Authors:  Sarah Mouabbi - Banque de France (France) [presenting]
Jean-Guillaume Sahuc - Banque de France (France)
Abstract: The macroeconomic effects of the European Central Banks unconventional monetary policies is quantified using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model which includes a shadow Eonia rate. Extracted from the yield curve, this shadow rate provides an unconstrained measure of the overall stance of monetary policy. Counterfactual analyses show that, without unconventional measures, the euro area would have suffered (i) a cumulative loss of output of around 19\% of its pre-crisis level since the Great Recession, (ii) deflation episodes in 2009Q1 and 2016Q1 and (iii) a slowdown in price increases in 2015 and 2016. This translates into year-on-year inflation and GDP growth growth that would have been on average about 0.3\% and 0.5\% below their actual levels over the period 2014Q1-2016Q1, respectively.