Title: Estimating space-time trend and dependence of heavy rainfall
Authors: Ana Ferreira - Instituto Superior Tecnico (Portugal) [presenting]
Petra Friederichs - University of Bonn (Germany)
Laurens de Haan - Eurasmus University Rotterdam and University of Lisbon (Netherlands)
Claudia Neves - University of Reading (United Kingdom)
Martin Schlather - Universitat Mannheim (Germany)
Abstract: A new approach for evaluating time-trends in extreme values accounting also for spatial dependence is proposed. Based on exceedances over a space-time threshold, estimators for a trend function and for extreme value parameters are given, leading to a homogenization procedure for then applying stationary extreme value processes. Extremal dependence over space is further evaluated through variogram analysis including anisotropy. We detect significant inhomogeneities and trends in the extremal behaviour of daily precipitation data over a time period of 84 years and from 68 observational weather stations in North-West Germany. We observe that the trend is not monotonous over time in general. Asymptotic normality of the estimators under maximum domain of attraction conditions are proven.