Title: Simulation of major heat waves in central Europe in EURO-CORDEX RCMs
Authors: Jan Kysely - Institute of Atmospheric Physics AS CR (Czech Republic) [presenting]
Abstract: The aim is to evaluate the capability of EURO-CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate major heat waves in Central Europe and their associated meteorological factors. Three reference major heat waves (1994, 2006, and 2015) were identified in the observed gridded data set (E-OBS), based on their temperature characteristics, length and spatial extent. Atmospheric circulation, precipitation, net short-wave radiation, and evaporative fraction anomalies during these events were assessed using the ERA-Interim reanalysis. Analogous major heat waves and their links to the aforementioned factors were analysed in an ensemble of EURO-CORDEX RCMs driven by various global climate models in the 1970-2016 period. All three reference major heat waves were associated with favourable circulation conditions, precipitation deficit, reduced evaporative fraction and increased net short-wave radiation. This joint contribution of large-scale circulation and land-atmosphere interactions is simulated with difficulties in majority of the RCMs, which affects the magnitude of modelled major heat waves. The findings point to different driving mechanisms of major heat waves in some RCMs compared to observations, which should be taken into account when analysing and interpreting future projections of these events.