Title: ABC model selection for spatial max-stable models applied to South Australian maximum temperature data
Authors: Markus Hainy - Johannes Kepler University (Austria) [presenting]
Xing Ju Lee - Queensland University of Technology (Australia)
Christopher Drovandi - Queensland University of Technology (Australia)
Anthony Pettitt - (Australia)
Abstract: Max-stable processes are a common choice for modelling spatial extreme data as they arise naturally as the infinite-dimensional generalisation of multivariate extreme value theory. Statistical inference for such models is complicated by the intractability of the multivariate density function in many cases. Among others, simulation-based approaches using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) have been employed for estimating parameters of max-stable models. ABC algorithms rely on the evaluation of discrepancies between model simulations and the observed data rather than explicit evaluations of computationally expensive or intractable likelihood functions. The use of an ABC method to perform model selection for max-stable models is explored. The ABC summary statistics are selected in a semi-automatic way. Four max-stable models are considered: the extremal-t model with either a Whittle-Matern, Cauchy or powered exponential covariance function, and the Brown-Resnick model. The method is applied to annual maximum temperature data from 25 weather stations dispersed around South Australia.