Title: Identification of SVAR models by combining sign restrictions with external instruments
Authors: Robin Braun - Bank of England (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Ralf Brueggemann - University of Konstanz (Germany)
Abstract: Structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are identified by combining sign restrictions with information in external instruments and proxy variables. We incorporate the proxy variables by augmenting the SVAR with equations that relate them to the structural shocks. Our modeling framework allows to simultaneously identify different shocks using either sign restrictions or an external instrument approach, always ensuring that all shocks are orthogonal. The combination of restrictions can also be used to identify a single shock. This entails discarding models that imply structural shocks that have no close relation to the external proxy time series, which narrows down the set of admissible models. Our approach nests the pure sign restriction case and the pure external instrument variable case. We discuss full Bayesian inference, which accounts for both, model and estimation uncertainty. We illustrate the usefulness of our method in SVARs analyzing oil market and monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that combining sign restrictions with proxy variable information is a promising way to sharpen results from SVAR models.