Title: Analysis of aggregate zonal imbalance in the Italian electricity market using copula models
Authors: Aurora Gatto - University of Salento (Italy) [presenting]
Fabrizio Durante - University of Salento (Italy)
Francesco Ravazzolo - Free University of Bozen-Bolzano (Italy)
Abstract: The problem of determining possible correlations and dependencies with the aggregate zonal imbalance in electricity markets is considered. In particular, we are interested in the estimation of a model for the aggregate zonal imbalance, that is, the algebraic sum, changed in sign, of the amount of energy procured by the Italian national Transmission and System Operator (Terna) in the Dispatching Services Market (Msd) at a given time in a given Italian electricity macro-zone. From a methodological point of view, we use a model that combines the analysis of classical time series with copula-type models. As a result, the flexibility of a copula approach will allow identifying the nature of non-linear linkage among the aggregate zonal imbalance and other variables of interest for the electricity market such as forecasted demand, forecasted wind and solar PV generation.