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Title: Competing risks regression with dependent multiple spells: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to maternity leave Authors:  Ming Sum Simon Lo - City University of Hong Kong (Hong Kong)
Shuolin Shi - Copenhagen Business School (Denmark)
Caecilia Lipowski - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research (Germany)
Ralf Wilke - Copenhagen Business School (Denmark) [presenting]
Abstract: Copulas are a convenient tool in statistics to model dependencies. A dependent competing risks model with dependent multiple spells is considered. The aim is to study the practical model performance depending on the choice of hazard model and copula. A simulation study looks at the relevance of the assumed parametric or semiparametric models for hazard functions, copula and whether full or partial maximum likelihood approach is chosen. The results show that the researcher must be careful which hazard is being specified as similar functional form assumptions for the subdistribution and cause-specific hazard will lead to different estimated cumulative incidences. Model selection tests for the choice of hazard model and copula are found to provide some guidance for setting up the model. The nice practical properties and flexibility of the copula model are demonstrated with an application to a large set of maternity leave of mothers after they have given birth to their first to up to the third child.