Title: Public confidence in statistical models: The UK approach to exam grades in summer 2020
Authors: Ed Humpherson - Office for Statistics Regulation (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), the official statistics regulator in the UK, has been undertaking a review of the use of statistical models to award exam grades to school children and other learners in the UK in the summer of 2020. The policy intention was that grades would be awarded using statistical models that brought together prior attainment, teacher judgement and past performance of the school they attended. But when the grades were released, there was a widespread public concern, and the modelled grades were abandoned. The aim is to explain how the OSR review, to be published in early 2020, will focus on public confidence and how public confidence needs to be interwoven throughout the process of model development.