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Title: Evidence estimation in finite and infinite mixture models and applications Authors:  Adrien Hairault - Universite Paris Dauphine PSL (France) [presenting]
Christian Robert - Universite Paris-Dauphine (France)
Judith Rousseau - University of Oxford (United Kingdom)
Abstract: Estimating the model evidence - or marginal likelihood of the data - is a notoriously difficult task for finite and infinite mixture models and we reexamine here different Monte Carlo techniques advocated in the recent literature, as well as novel approaches based on the reverse logistic regression technique, Chib's algorithm, and Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC). Applications are numerous. In particular, testing for the number of components in a finite mixture model or against the fit of a finite mixture model for a given dataset has long been and still is an issue of much interest, albeit yet missing a fully satisfactory resolution. Using a Bayes factor to find the right number of components $K$ in a finite mixture model is known to provide a consistent procedure. We furthermore establish the consistency of the Bayes factor when comparing a parametric family of finite mixtures against the nonparametric ``strongly identifiable'' Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) model.