Title: An interactive online app for predicting diabetes via machine learning from environment-polluting chemical exposure data
Authors: Rosy Oh - Ewha Womans University (Korea, South)
Hong Kyu Lee - Seoul National University (Korea, South)
Youngmi Kim Pak - Kyung Hee University (Korea, South)
Man-Suk Oh - Ewha Womans University (Korea, South) [presenting]
Abstract: The early prediction and identification of risk factors for diabetes may prevent or delay diabetes progression. We developed an interactive online application that provides the predictive probabilities of prediabetes and diabetes in 4 years based on a Bayesian network (BN) classifier which is an interpretable machine learning technique. The BN was trained using a dataset from the Ansung cohort of the Korean Genome and Epidemiological Study (KoGES) in 2008, with a follow-up in 2012. The dataset contained not only traditional risk factors (current diabetes status, sex, age, etc.) for future diabetes, but it also contained serum biomarkers which quantified the individual level of exposure to environment polluting chemicals (EPC). Based on the accuracy and the area under the curve (AUC), a tree augmented BN with 11 variables derived from feature selection was used as our prediction model. The online application that implemented our BN prediction system provided a tool that performs customized diabetes prediction and allows users to simulate the effects of controlling risk factors for the future development of diabetes. The prediction results of our method showed that the EPC biomarkers had interactive effects on diabetes progression and that the use of the EPC biomarkers contributed to a substantial improvement in prediction performance.