Title: Psycho COVID-19: Evaluating the risk of the psycho-physical impact of the pandemic
Authors: Roberto Di Mari - Universita' di Catania, Dipartimento di Economia e Impresa (Italy) [presenting]
Abstract: This is a systematic study of the psychological consequences of COVID-19, based on a large sample of online answers to a structured questionnaire of 20 questions. The questionnaire has been designed by a group of well-known psychologists and physicians coordinated by Dr. Vito Tummino, and has been implemented online by the Provincial Health Authority of Ragusa, Italy. Using techniques of MCDA (Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis), we are able to exploit the opportunity of interaction between the statistician and a clinical expert, in order to obtain an aggregate distribution-free score for each class of items. The resulting two scores, each on a 0-1 continuous scale, represent, respectively, physical and psychological risk of experiencing maladjustment and stress disorder. Subsequently, we specify a novel 0-1 inflated semisupervised ordinal latent class model to build a classifier, which, by leveraging on all available information from the two scores, groups units into 9 ``overall risk'' classes - ranked from 1 (no risk at all or negligible risk) to 9 (very high or maximum risk). The individual posterior membership probabilities are then elaborated to be used i) by potential patients as a tool for raising self-awareness, and ii) by aiding professionals as an individual and aggregate monitoring tool.