Title: Modelling daily power generation time series: Germany's transition towards renewable energies
Authors: Philipp Sibbertsen - University of Hannover (Germany)
Teresa Flock - Leibniz University Hannover (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: As renewable energies provide a major instrument for slowing climate change, we expect the German energy mix to transition towards lower-emission power sources. To explore this expectation, we consider the recent daily power generation time series of Germany's twelve main energy sources up to 2021. In a univariate setting, we identify their seasonal patterns and long-term trends, and consider external shocks like the COVID-19 pandemic by accounting for structural breaks. We further perform multivariate analyses to model the interdependencies between the different energy sources, identifying common drivers and substitution effects. We place special emphasis on the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG), comparing its effects on Germany's electricity mix with its stated intentions.