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Title: Reliability inference for actuarial-financial mathematics Authors:  Andreas Makrides - University of the Aegean (Cyprus) [presenting]
Christos Meselidis - University of the Aegean (Greece)
Alexandros Karagrigoriou - University of The Aegean (Greece)
Abstract: An innovative approach to loss ratio forecasting is developed using a special type of semi-Markov process. Three levels of loss ratio are considered as the states of a semi-Markov process, and semi-Markov process methodology is employed for estimating transition probabilities of loss ratio levels transit from a predefined level to another one.