Title: Does climate sensitivity differ across regions? A varying-coefficient approach
Authors: Yang Yang - University of Newcastle (Australia) [presenting]
Heather Anderson - Monash University (Australia)
Jiti Gao - Monash University (Australia)
Farshid Vahid - Monash University (Australia)
Wei Wei - Monash University (Australia)
Abstract: The global mean surface temperature has been increasing in the last six decades in response to growing greenhouse gas concentrations. While Earth is getting warmer globally, local regions are observed to experience unequal increases in temperature. We measure climate sensitivity in various land regions around the world with a dynamic varying-coefficient panel data model and spatial-temporal climate data. The proposed inference method can accommodate heterogeneous co-integration relationships between global and local variables, allowing co-moving climate time series to possess stochastic and deterministic trending components and spatial-temporal dependence. Applied to observational data of mean surface temperatures, solar radiation, and carbon dioxide concentrations between 1959-2017, our model reveals an estimate of a 3.7-degree increase in global land temperature after a doubling of CO2 concentrations. Moreover, our empirical estimates indicate that high-latitude regions in the Northern Hemisphere are most vulnerable to climate warming.