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Title: A case study for subnational population estimates using a population base statistical register Authors:  Jairo Fuquene - UC Davis (United States) [presenting]
Abstract: Population projections at subnational levels play an important role in decision-making in low-income countries. We consider a Bayesian approach with a population base statistical register to update population projections at subnational levels. We consider, for the first time to the best of our knowledge, the construction of a population base statistical register in a developing country using administrative records from the health, education and vital statistics systems and other specific but also important administrative records with information about the victims of the current armed conflict and the tax registration in Colombia. Our proposal is motivated by the need to produce more realistic population projections at sub-national levels in Colombia, where surveys and censuses are difficult to implement because of the current armed conflict in this country. Then we consider our proposal to produce population projections by age and sex groups in a municipality highly affected by forced displacement. To illustrate that the proposed procedure produces population projections with large precision, we consider an experimental population census conducted exclusively in this municipality.