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Title: Modelling spatially misaligned disease count data with multiple severities Authors:  Craig Anderson - University of Glasgow (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Duncan Lee - University of Glasgow (United Kingdom)
Abstract: Population-level disease risk varies between communities, and public health professionals are interested in mapping this spatial variation to monitor the locations of high-risk areas and the magnitudes of health inequalities. Almost all of these risk maps relate to a single severity of disease outcome, such as hospitalisation, which thus ignores any cases of disease of different severity, such as a mild case treated in a primary care setting. These spatially-varying risk maps are estimated from spatially aggregated disease count data, but the set of areal units to which these disease counts relate often varies by severity. Thus, the statistical challenge is to provide spatially comparable inference from multiple sets of spatially misaligned disease count data, and additional complexity is that the spatial extents of the areal units for some severities are partially unknown. Thus, a novel spatial realignment approach is proposed for multivariate misaligned count data, and it is applied to the first study delivering spatially comparable inference for multiple severities of the same disease. The inference is via a novel spatially smoothed data augmented Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm, and the methods are motivated by a new study of respiratory disease risk in Scotland in 2017.