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Title: What are the projections of donations and wealthier people: New forecasts for the tax incentives in the canton of Geneva Authors:  Marta Pittavino - University of Geneva (Switzerland) [presenting]
Giedre Lideikyte Huber - University of Geneva (Switzerland)
Abstract: This is the second part of the first large-scale empirical legal analysis of tax incentives for charitable giving in Switzerland, and one of the few studies globally. Using unique longitudinal data, including household income and wealth of the entire taxpayers' population of the Canton of Geneva, Switzerland, we study patterns of charitable deductions and characteristics of donors making such deductions. Our study period extends over a decade (2001-2011). This period also encompasses a legal reform that raised ceilings for charitable deductions. We observe that an overwhelming majority of donors make deductions that never reach the legal ceiling, especially after the reform. Analyzing the deduction patterns in the entire donor population, we observe that deducting charitable donations has become increasingly popular during the study period. In addition, we find that donors' relative generosity tends to decrease when their income and wealth increase. Therefore, we investigated how wealthier people are affected by the tax incentives and how their related donations are conducted. Projections for the upcoming five years, from the end of our study period, are provided. An estimation of future donations and donors is given, based on the previously studied 11 years of data. Those results have important tax policy implications and relevance in modeling tax incentives for charitable giving, in both Switzerland and elsewhere.