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Title: A Bayesian shared-frailty spatial scan statistic model for time-to-event data Authors:  Camille Frevent - University of Lille (France) [presenting]
Mohamed Salem Ahmed - University of Lille (France)
Sophie Dabo - University of Lille (France)
Michael Genin - University of Lille (France)
Abstract: Spatial scan statistics are well-known and widely used methods for the detection of spatial clusters of events. In the field of spatial analysis of time-to-event data, several models of scan statistics have been proposed. However, these models do not take into account the potential intra-unit spatial correlation of individuals nor a potential correlation between spatial units. To overcome this problem, we propose a scan statistic based on a Cox model with shared frailty that takes into account the spatial correlation between spatial units. In simulation studies, we have shown that (i) classical models of spatial scan statistics for time-to-event data fail to maintain the type I error in the presence of intra-spatial unit correlation, and (ii) our model performs well in the presence of both intra-spatial unit correlation and inter-spatial unit correlation. Our method has been applied to epidemiological data and the detection of spatial clusters of mortality in patients with end-stage renal disease in northern France.