Title: Assessing the reliability of aggregated inflation views in the European commission consumer survey
Authors: Maritta Paloviita - Bank of Finland (Finland) [presenting]
Ewa Stanislawska - Narodowy Bank Polski (Poland)
Tomasz Lyziak - Polish Academy of Science (Poland)
Abstract: Using a novel approach, we assess the reliability of aggregated inflation expectations in the European Commission Consumer Survey by identifying individual responses to qualitative and quantitative survey questions that do not match each other. We examine how inconsistent survey responses affect balance statistics, mean inflation expectations and the assessment of the formation of inflation expectations based on the sticky-information model. The Finnish and Polish data indicate that micro-level inconsistencies neither matter for the aggregated inflation views nor explain inflation overestimation bias displayed in the data. Overall, micro-level inconsistencies do not reduce the reliability of the European Commission Consumer Survey.