Title: A state-level analysis of Okun's law
Authors: Amy Guisinger - Lafayette College (United States) [presenting]
Michael Owyang - Federal Reserve Bank of St Louis (United States)
Abstract: Okun's law is an empirical relationship that measures the correlation between the deviation of the unemployment rate from its natural rate and the deviation of output growth from its potential. We estimate Okun's coefficients for each U.S. state and examine the potential factors that explain the heterogeneity of the estimated Okun relationships. We find that indicators of more flexible labor markets (higher levels of education achievement in the population, lower rate of unionization, and a higher share of non-manufacturing employment) are important determinants of the differences in Okun's coefficient across states. Finally, we show that Okun's relationship is not stable across specifications, which can lead to inaccurate estimates of the potential determinants of Okun's coefficient.