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Title: Measuring underlying inflation using dynamic model averaging Authors:  Yuto Iwasaki - Bank of Japan (Japan) [presenting]
Abstract: The aim is to present a new framework for measuring underlying inflation with multiple core indicators for Japans consumer price index (CPI). Specifically, a combined core indicator is constructed by applying an econometric method based on dynamic model averaging as a weighted average of individual core indicators. The combined core indicator has time-varying combination weights reflecting changes in the predictive performance of each individual core indicator on a real time basis. Thus, the combined core indicator has the potential to adapt to changes in the nature and sources of price movements. Empirical evidence indicates that the combined core indicator firmly outperforms the individual core indicators over time. In addition, the combination weights for the exclusion-based indicators (e.g. the CPI excluding fresh food) tend to be high when aggregate shocks drive the overall inflation. In contrast, combination weights for the distribution-based indicators (e.g. trimmed mean) tend to be high when idiosyncratic shocks are dominant.