Title: In-play betting: Are markets efficient and how do bookmakers make profit?
Authors: Marius Oetting - TU Clausthal (Germany) [presenting]
Abstract: High-resolution (1 Hz) data on betting odds and volumes in a football live betting market are considered. We use this unique data set provided by a large European bookmaker to conduct an exploratory analysis of market inefficiencies and the bookmaker's price-setting strategies. Since previous research suggests that mispricing is present after events such as goals, we focus on the pricing of bookmakers and stakes placed by bettors when the first goal of a match is scored. Our results indicate that bettors suffer from well-known behavioural biases, which in turn are exploited by bookmakers in their price setting and thus lead to profit.