Title: Modelling of Covid'19 pandemic using Crump-Mode-Jagers branching processes with vaccination
Authors: Maroussia Slavtchova-Bojkova - Sofia University (Bulgaria) [presenting]
Valeriya Simeonova - Sofia University (Bulgaria)
Abstract: New results for the ongoing pandemics caused by Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 will be presented based on the model of the general branching processes. We have developed and maintained three possible scenarios: main, optimistic and pessimistic depending on the time-varying reproduction number of the epidemic, considered as a measure of the effectiveness of the public health interventions changing rapidly to a greater or lesser degree throughout the pandemic waves. The functionality of the script allows for updating the forecasts based on the data of the ongoing spread of the epidemic. The focus is on the impact of the vaccination policies.