Title: Estimation of incidence of early-onset invasive Group B Streptococcus disease in infants using Bayesian methods
Authors: Bronner Goncalves - London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (United Kingdom) [presenting]
Abstract: Neonatal invasive disease caused by Group B Streptococcus (GBS) leads to acute mortality and long-term morbidity. To guide the development of better prevention strategies, it is necessary to estimate the burden of this condition globally. We present a Bayesian model that estimates invasive GBS (iGBS) disease incidence in children aged 0 to 6 days. The model combines different types of epidemiological data: GBS colonization prevalence in pregnant women, risk of iGBS disease in children born to GBS-colonized mothers and direct estimates of iGBS disease incidence where available. We estimated country-specific maternal GBS colonization prevalence after adjustment for GBS detection assay. We then integrate these results with other epidemiological data and estimate the country-level incidence of iGBS disease including in countries with no studies that directly estimate incidence. Overall, we believe our method will contribute to a more comprehensive quantification of the burden of this disease, inform cost-effectiveness assessments of potential vaccines and identify areas where data are necessary.